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Incident

Epic Sepsis Model missed two-thirds of sepsis cases in external validation

An independent validation of Epic's proprietary sepsis score found it far less accurate than the vendor reported: it missed 67% of sepsis cases while alerting on 18% of all hospitalizations.

Sources checked when written 26 September 2026

What happened

Wong and colleagues applied the Epic Sepsis Model retrospectively to 38,455 hospitalizations of 27,697 patients at Michigan Medicine. The hospitalization-level AUC was 0.63, against the developer's reported 0.76 to 0.83. At the alert threshold of 6 the model had 33% sensitivity and 12% positive predictive value; it did not identify 1,709 of the 2,552 patients with sepsis, and it flagged only 183 septic patients (7%) whom clinicians had not already treated with timely antibiotics. Alerts fired on 6,971 hospitalizations. A 2026 multicenter validation of the redesigned version 2 found better discrimination (encounter-level AUROC 0.82 to 0.92) but still low PPV (0.13 to 0.26), high alert burden and wide variation between the four health systems.[1,2]

Documented harm

No individual patient harm documented in the study; the documented effect is missed detection and alert burden at scale.

What it teaches

Sources

  1. External Validation of a Widely Implemented Proprietary Sepsis Prediction Model in Hospitalized Patients. JAMA Internal Medicine (Wong A, Otles E, Donnelly JP, et al.), 21 June 2021. Primary Peer-reviewed · link checked 2026-09-26
  2. Multicenter Prospective Validation of an Updated Proprietary Sepsis Prediction Model. JAMA Network Open (Wong A, Currey D, Schwinne M, et al.), 2 February 2026. Primary Peer-reviewed · link checked 2026-09-26

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